Login
Subscribe
More About This Website

This is my effort to share my thoughts with readers about concerns facing our country today.  I believe there is a good chance my grandchildren may be the first generation in the history of this great country not to have a better standard of living than their parents. If so, our generation is to blame. The clock is running out for damage control. .

<a href="http://technorati.com/claim/sdept8b5a6"rel="me">TechnoratiProfile</a> 

Navigation
Search
Powered by Squarespace
blog index
« The Public is Wiser than the People We Hire | Main | Obama's Green Economy »
Saturday
Nov222008

Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone

New forecasts just came out for crude oil production in 2009. The International Energy Agency, which does this kind of thing, says production will be down more than last year's forecast for 2009. This organization, based in Paris, does oil forecasting for oil producing countries. They make predictions from a study of 800 of the world's oil fields. Last year they said the world would need to invest $22.3 trillion by 2030 to ensure adequate oil supplies. This year they added $4 trillion to that total. They put demand growth at a modest 1.5% a year average. That puts demand at 106 million barrels a day in 2030 vs. 85 million a day this year.

Fields are drying up faster than everyone thought. They looked at the 20 largest fields in the world at their peak year and compared that to 2007. In aggregate these fields produced 30 million barrels a day at each field's peak. In 2007 those fields produced 19 million barrels a day.

In the U.S. where we import 70% of our crude oil, this is particularly bad news. Big oil, or Exxon-Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and BP are shut out from most new fields under development since the fields are owned and controlled by nations that intend to develop them with national oil companies. 

We can and have cut our demand. How much we can cut will be determined by our economy. Can our economy recover if we have to raise demand and that brings back the $120 crude. The answer to that is above my pay grade. 

America seems destined to sit this one out. We are going to bet the farm on alternative energy. If it doesn't happen, the farm may be fallow. I don't find this a very logical way to risk my grand kid's futures. Seems like putting way too many eggs in the hope catagory. The recent $700 billion in TARP bailout would have built 70 new nuclear power plants here. It would have funded the pipeline from Alaska to bring the natural gas to the lower forty eight. It would have funded all of our future energy supply requirements for the next 20 years and made us energy independent. 

Guess the banks were more important. President Obama plans to spend $150 million on alternative energy. That will money he extorts from the oil industry which may move out of the U.S. and take their taxes and jobs with them. We will still have the banks, or will we ? If we have no energy or have to pay more than the $600 billion we paid this year to foreign countries, we might not have any money to put in those banks.

References (7)

References allow you to track sources for this article, as well as articles that were written in response to this article.
  • Response
    Response: This Resource site
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Response: post2030133
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Response: Seneca Skin
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price
  • Response
    Crude Oil Production--Going, Going, Gone - Journal - Our grandchildren will pay the price

Reader Comments (1)

Exact title you have chosen for the topic. I think it is less confusing to have different contract quotes for the distillates of crude oil and the crude oil itself. But this has become an interesting future for the investors.

November 26, 2008 | Unregistered Commentercrude oil futures

PostPost a New Comment

Enter your information below to add a new comment.

My response is on my own website »
Author Email (optional):
Author URL (optional):
Post:
 
Some HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <code> <em> <i> <strike> <strong>